Delays, delays, delays. All American politicians do is try to avoid consequences!
With President Barack Obama having been reelected and the Senate and the House having stayed in Democratic and Republican hands, respectively, attention now will turn to the lame duck session that will formally get underway the week of November 12 but won’t likely get down to business until the week of November 26. Based on past experience, we expect to hear sleigh bells before the 112th Congress leaves town. Since so much that will happen next year will be driven by what happens in the next two months, we principally focus this introduction on the challenges facing the President and the Congress in the lame duck session.
Recognizing the dangers to the economy, the Administration reportedly is analyzing the extent to which it could use existing authority to buy additional time to reach an agreement with Congress early next year, such as by freezing the amount of money taken out of payroll checks by not updating tax withholding tables to reflect expiration of the Bush tax cuts on December 31. The Administration also could seek to delay to later in the year automatic spending cuts that otherwise would begin on January 2. We do not expect the Administration to make its plans public any time soon, not least because identifying an escape hatch early could create the very outcome it hopes to avoid. And, in any event, it doesn’t have to come to this.
In the lame duck session, for example, Congress might agree to legislation that would extend all (or most) expired and expiring tax breaks for six months to a year, tied to fundamental tax reform generating some agreed-upon amount in the hundreds of billions of dollars (or more) in overall deficit reduction over the next decade, with the threat of greater deficit reduction if the 113th Congress were to fail to act by then. Democrats will likely raise eliminating or modifying some tax measures, including those aimed at the oil and gas industry, to help offset the cost of forestalling the spending sequester or to make a “down payment” on future deficit reduction. Such an agreement also could mandate some further level of deficit reduction by seeking to compel the 113th Congress to reform entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid next year.
With the elections behind them, the President and the 112th Congress have an opportunity to succeed where they have failed before. Assuming Congress is willing to support legislation putting off the day of reckoning for an additional six months to a year, we expect the President to ask for an increase in the debt ceiling as part of the final negotiations. (As a result of increased tax receipts, the Treasury Department now anticipates that the debt ceiling will not be reached until early in the first quarter, with action to address the problem probably necessary by late February or early March.) Whether the President can secure congressional support for an increase by the end of the year will be a matter to be negotiated and ultimately will depend on the magnitude of whatever deal is reached. The President will not want to ask Congress to increase the debt ceiling early next year in a situation in which House Republicans would be in a very strong position to extract additional concessions without having to give up something meaningful. For them, the trade off in the lame duck session might be a one-year extension of the Bush tax cuts, including for married couples making more than $250,000, tied to an agreement to pursue fundamental tax and entitlement reform next year. Even that might be a stretch. Given the election results, Congressional Republicans may have to accept an income limitation for any Bush tax cut extension, if not at $250,000 then at $500,000 or $1,000,000.
What else can we expect in the next few months? With the President having won re-election, we anticipate that many major rules will soon be published in final form, which will likely trigger a political reaction on Capitol Hill as Republicans invoke the Congressional Review Act in an effort to block them from becoming law. The EPA, for example, has many major rules on track to become final later this year or early next year. In addition, dozens of rules required under the Dodd-Frank Act are in the works. Finally, the President’s re-election puts his Administration in a commanding position to finalize numerous rules that solidify the regulatory framework for implementing the Affordable Care Act. Republican efforts to invoke the Congressional Review Act later this year and next year are unlikely to succeed in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Even if one or more do, a certain Presidential veto virtually ensures forthcoming rules will stand unless struck down by the courts.